Distribution and Evolution of the Debris Cloud from the Fragmentation of Intelsat 33E

Abstract

The breakup of Intelsat 33E on 19 October 2024 posed a potential risk to satellites in the Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO). This study analyzes the evolution and distribution of these fragments using a probabilistic approach. The initial distribution of the fragments, derived from the NASA Standard Breakup Model, indicates the generation of 4,393 fragments larger than 1 centimeter. The spatial propagation of these fragments is modeled analytically in the Earth-Centered Earth-Fixed reference frame, showing the formation of high-density ring structures in the equatorial plane from 24 hours to 28 days after the breakup. The orbits of 36 cataloged fragments are retrieved and compared with the probability density. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulations validate the probabilistic model and highlight its efficiency in capturing low-probability events. Collision risks to other GEO satellites are assessed, showing that the top 10\% of satellites encounter a collision probability of up to $10^{-8}$ after 28 days. Satellites near the equatorial plane are at higher risk, whereas those with higher inclinations are less affected. These findings underscore the need for enhanced monitoring and mitigation strategies for GEO breakup events, given the challenges in detecting small fragments.