Surrogate Modeling of Interconnector Flows: A Machine Learning Alternative to Full-Scale Power System Simulations with Application to Cross-Border Electricity Exchange

Abstract

Cross-border electricity exchanges are crucial for operating and planning highly renewable power systems. Many studies reduce spatial granularity to keep the models tractable and prescribe cross-border exchanges exogenously, often by reusing historical import/export time series. Such assumptions become inconsistent as renewable penetration changes the magnitude and timing of flows. This paper proposes a machine-learning (ML) surrogate framework that maps available nodal time series data (e.g., hourly demand and renewable generation) to synthetic, interconnector-level flow time series. The goal is to provide consistent flow profiles that are used as fixed boundary conditions in reduced power system optimization models (PSOMs). To improve downstream feasibility when surrogate flows are imposed in optimization, we further introduce a custom loss for the neural-network surrogate that penalizes physically impossible flow patterns. We demonstrate the framework on a pan-European single-node per country DC optimal power flow setting using the open-source LEGO PSOM with ENTSO-E TYNDP 2024 National Trends assumptions for 2030. We assess two model classes: k-nearest neighbors (KNN) and feedforward neural networks (SQU), using both full and reduced feature sets. The SQU models generalize more robustly than KNN to unseen climate years and substantially improve upon scaled historical benchmarks in terms of predictive accuracy. When imposed as fixed boundary flows in single-node PSOMs, the ML-generated profiles produce outcomes that closely match the results of the full European simulation, while delivering substantial runtime reductions (up to ~500x). These results indicate that ML-based flow surrogates can provide decision-relevant interconnector flows for tractable reduced studies in high-renewable systems.