Preparing for the Next Carrington: Spatiotemporal Agent-Based Modeling for Safeguarding Satellite Infrastructure Under Extreme Space Weather Disturbances

Abstract

Extreme space weather poses an existential threat to modern satellite infrastructure, with a Carrington-class solar storm projected to cause economic losses of billions of dollars per day. Due to the rapid proliferation of satellites (with over 70,000 expected to be deployed in the next 5 years), understanding extreme space weather impacts has become essential for global economic stability and national security, and consequently, the lives of millions. However, our current vulnerability to such events remains largely unknown, and existing models rely primarily on statistical populations instead of individual satellite behavior. Through the development of a novel spatiotemporal agent-based model (ABM), this study addresses two critical research challenges: (1) predicting the impacts of extreme space weather disturbances and (2) enabling real-time maneuver guidance for satellites during such events. Utilizing 41,644 satellite records, historical records from 5 recent space weather events, and atmospheric density models, we built individual satellite agents with physics-driven behaviors that make independent decisions by dynamically responding to constraints such as propellant requirements and collision avoidance thresholds. Scenario analysis suggests that 95% of satellites in Low Earth Orbit altitudes would experience enhanced atmospheric drag of 8x baseline levels, increasing collision risks by 2-3x. Monte Carlo simulations also predict direct economic impact per affected satellite on the order of $40M. Furthermore, the model successfully uses real-time conditions to provide maneuver recommendations, with 92% accuracy. This study is thus the first to provide a prototype framework for real-time adaptive decision systems to safeguard satellites against the next Carrington-class disruption.