Probabilistic learning to perform pre-onset individualised prediction of disease severity: application to Veno Occlusive Disease

Dalia Chakrabarty; Kane Warrior; Chuqiao Zhang; Akash Bhojgaria; Joydeep Chakrabartty

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arXiv · 2606.06516

Probabilistic learning to perform pre-onset individualised prediction of disease severity: application to Veno Occlusive Disease

Dalia Chakrabarty·Kane Warrior·Chuqiao Zhang·Akash Bhojgaria·Joydeep Chakrabartty

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Abstract

We advance a new probabilistic supervised learning approach that permits reliable, automated, and early individualised prediction of the severity with which a disease will develop in a prospective patient. The prediction capacity is illustrated via the pre-transplant prediction of the score of severity of Veno Occlusive Disease (or VOD) in the digital twin (DT) of the considered prospective patient, where this score parametrises the severity with which VOD will develop in this patient, after they undergo their Bone Marrow Transplant. The learning of the relationship between the pre-transplant variables, and a severity score variable is undertaken by modelling this relationship as a (random) function that is treated as a sample function of an adequately-chosen stochastic process. The parameters of this underlying process are learnt using a training dataset that is generated using the real-time evolution of retrospective patients in a cohort, with this training dataset subsequently augmented in size by a probabilistic inverse learning of the score of prospective patients. The augmented training set, then permits the learning of the function that capacitates - at the pre-transplant stage - automated prediction of the score of the severity of VOD that characterises the DT of a physical patient in their unique pre-transplant state. This score is subsequently fed back to the real prospective patient as the severity with which VOD will develop in them, after this patient undergoes their transplant. Such a score then permits the treating Haematologist-Oncologists to decide on the treatment regimen, which in this illustration reduces to deciding on treating the patient with Defibrotide. An AI facility is developed to undertake such automated prediction, with the physician inputting the data on the pre-transplant state that characterises the DT of the prospective patient under consideration.

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Dalia Chakrabarty, Kane Warrior, Chuqiao Zhang, Akash Bhojgaria, Joydeep Chakrabartty. 2026-06-02. Probabilistic learning to perform pre-onset individualised prediction of disease severity: application to Veno Occlusive Disease. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.06516

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