A Rolling-Window Framework for Churn Prediction and Behavioral Driver Identification

Abstract

Customer churn prediction is a central task in customer analytics, particularly in non-contractual, pay-per-use service environments where disengagement is not explicitly observed and must be inferred from behavioral inactivity. Existing churn prediction approaches often rely on simplified temporal assumptions or single-point representations of customer behavior, which limit their ability to support continuous risk assessment, interpretability, and realistic deployment over time. This study proposes a temporally explicit churn prediction framework that models customer behavior using rolling behavioral windows, enabling repeated and instance-level churn risk estimation as customer activity evolves. Customer behavior is summarized within a fixed 30-day observation window, followed by a 30-day future churn evaluation window, ensuring a clear temporal separation between behavioral evidence and churn outcomes. The framework integrates feature-based and sequence-based learning approaches within a unified temporal design. The proposed approach is evaluated on a large-scale, real-world dataset from a non-contractual service platform. Empirical results demonstrate strong and stable predictive performance, with accuracy reaching 87.6% and ROC-AUC of 0.94 for the feature-based model, while the sequence-based model achieves recall as high as 96.1% by capturing temporal disengagement patterns. Evaluation on future unseen data confirms meaningful robustness under temporal shift, with accuracy remaining above 83% and ROC-AUC exceeding 0.91 without model retraining. Overall, the findings highlight that carefully designed temporal framing, rather than model complexity alone, is critical for achieving robust, interpretable, and deployment-ready churn prediction. The study provides a practical foundation for churn-oriented decision support in dynamic service environments.