Loop Current Extension as an Effective Delayed Dynamical System

Abstract

The Loop Current is the dominant circulation feature of the Gulf of Mexico and exhibits pronounced variability associated with northward extension, retraction, and eddy shedding. Despite decades of study, the extent to which this variability admits a reduced dynamical description remains unclear. We investigate this question using delayed-coordinate representations constructed from satellite-altimetry observations of Loop Current extension. Ridge regression, multilayer perceptron forecasting, and Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) are applied to learn delayed evolution maps from the extension time series. Forecast skill consistently exceeds persistence at lead times of 30--90 days while requiring only a small number of delayed coordinates. Ridge regression reveals saturation with delayed-state dimension, indicating that much of the predictive information is contained within a compact representation. Neural-network forecasts provide modest additional improvements, while delayed SINDy identifies sparse evolution maps involving intraseasonal memory scales, from approximately two weeks to a few months, that remain stable under recursive iteration. Physical diagnostics associated with Yucatan Channel inflow, Florida Straits outflow, gateway geometry, and northern Caribbean vorticity contain predictive information but do not provide additional independent state information once the delayed Loop Current state is included. These results support the interpretation of Loop Current extension as an observable evolving on an effective low-dimensional delayed dynamical system. A substantial fraction of the predictable variability can be reconstructed from a small number of delayed observations and represented through compact delayed evolution maps.