An information-geometric framework for mapping maximum potential biodiversity

Abstract

Biodiversity measures are often used descriptively: one computes a diversity index from an observed or estimated community composition and maps the resulting values across space. Conservation planning, however, also requires a site-specific benchmark against which the observed community can be compared. This chapter develops an information-geometric framework for such \emph{potential diversity} and the associated \emph{diversity gap}. The central object is a pair of probability vectors on the species simplex: an observed or realized composition \(p^{\mathrm{obs}}\), and a potential composition \(p^{\mathrm{pot}}\) obtained by a constrained variational principle. The gap is then defined by comparing a diversity functional at these two compositions. The framework is developed for both Hill-type diversity, which measures abundance and evenness, and Rao's quadratic entropy, which incorporates trait, phylogenetic, or ecological dissimilarities among species. A spatial point-process interpretation clarifies how local ecological capacities can be defined before passing to the simplex. Escort constraints, capacity constraints, and divergence projections then provide a unified way to define nontrivial benchmarks beyond the uniform distribution. The resulting formulation separates two distinct questions: how diverse a community is, and how far it is from a locally admissible potential benchmark. It also connects the ecological idea of dark diversity with a continuous, abundance-weighted comparison on the probability simplex. We also outline a dynamic extension in which capacities, species migration, and climate-driven shifts vary over time. Empirical implementation with large-scale citizen-science biodiversity data and trait databases is left for future work.