Updating the PATH framework with FRB host galaxy models

Abstract

Over a hundred fast radio burst (FRB) host galaxies have now been identified, enabling both comparisons of host redshift with FRB dispersion measure to study the cosmological distribution of ionised gas, and analyses of host properties in order to identify FRB progenitors. The standard method for determining the most likely FRB host galaxy in an optical image is the Bayesian framework Probabilistic Association of Transients to their Hosts (PATH), which accounts for uncertainties in the radio localisation, and simplified prior distributions on the host being observable. In this work we extend PATH, incorporating physically-motivated priors that are based on expectations about FRB host galaxy magnitudes. We develop three different models for the apparent r-band magnitude distribution based on an FRB's expected host galaxy redshift, $P(m_r|z)$ and combine these with expectations for redshift based on an FRB's dispersion measure, $P(z|DM)$. We fit the parameters of these prior models using host galaxy candidates for 32 FRBs detected by the Australian SKA Pathfinder (ASKAP) in incoherent sum (ICS) mode by the Commensal Real-time ASKAP Fast Transients (CRAFT) survey. Employing PATH with the new priors on the host magnitudes, we find increased confidence in the most probable hosts of all ASKAP ICS FRB host galaxies. All three models predict similar distributions of FRB host magnitudes at low redshift $(z \sim 0.1)$, and we confirm previous results that the true FRB host galaxy distribution is fainter than expected for a star-formation-weighted distribution (p-value of 0.12%). However, a mass-weighted distribution provides an even worse fit (p-value of $10^{-9}$). Tests against more FRBs in the $z > 0.5$ range, where the models differ, and extensions of the models to account for e.g. host metallicity, may help to resolve these uncertainties in the FRB host distribution.