Chaos and stability in the marine trophic network: the importance of interactions over complexity

Ilaria Cunico; Guido Occhipinti; Gregor Fussmann; Paolo Lazzari

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arXiv · 2606.10809

Chaos and stability in the marine trophic network: the importance of interactions over complexity

Ilaria Cunico·Guido Occhipinti·Gregor Fussmann·Paolo Lazzari

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Abstract

Understanding the dynamics of real world complex networks is crucial for assessing their predictability, resilience, and improving ecosystem management, especially in the context of climate change. The relationship between stability and complexity in ecological networks is still debated in the literature. In this modeling study, we investigate whether a complex marine trophic network, characterized by multiple trophic interactions and environmental constraints, exhibits predominantly stable, periodic or chaotic dynamics. We incorporate the microbial loop into a trophic network model, which includes one to three primary producers, one or two consumers, and up to three trophic levels of predators. The microbial loop is a key process in which bacteria recycle detritus from higher trophic levels into nutrients available for the growth of primary producers, ensuring mass conservation within the system. We perform numerical simulations to investigate the dynamic behavior of the network, exploring several configurations by turning off predator prey links between species and varying the high dimensional parameter space. Our results show that (i) longer trophic chains and (ii) a higher number of consumers increase system chaoticity, whereas (iii) omnivorous interactions promote stability. Notably, many of the configurations exhibit high percentages of chaotic behavior. Feedback loop analysis suggests that the balance between negative and positive interactions plays a key role in the convergence of the system toward a steady state. This study shows that interactions and feedback, rather than complexity, are key drivers of stability, pointing to the absence of a clear stability complexity relationship and instead highlighting a stability interaction dependence. Chaotic dynamics may also play an important role, with potential implications for predictability and ecosystem management.

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Ilaria Cunico, Guido Occhipinti, Gregor Fussmann, Paolo Lazzari. 2026-06-09. Chaos and stability in the marine trophic network: the importance of interactions over complexity. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.10809

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