Network-Based Multi-Layer Model Using Machine Learning for Optimal Vaccine Prioritization in Heterogeneous Populations

Abstract

This work advances epidemic control beyond traditional mass vaccination models by integrating population heterogeneity, network structure, and machine-learning-based decision policies. Using the Email-Eu-core contact network, we compare classical centrality-driven vaccination strategies with graph neural network (GNN) and reinforcement learning (RL) approaches. Across 30 stochastic simulations, classical heuristics, including degree, betweenness, and layer-based vaccination, exhibit similar performance, reflecting the network's dense connectivity and modest community structure. In contrast, the GNN-based strategy substantially reduces peak infection, final epidemic size, and time to peak, demonstrating its ability to identify structurally critical nodes that classical metrics overlook. These results show that learning-based vaccination policies can significantly outperform traditional heuristics by exploiting higher-order relational patterns in real-world networks, offering a powerful framework for targeted epidemic intervention.