Bounding Causal Effects for Ordinal Outcomes Under Positive Dependence

Micha Mandel; Daniel Rodan

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arXiv · 2606.15754

Bounding Causal Effects for Ordinal Outcomes Under Positive Dependence

Micha Mandel·Daniel Rodan

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Abstract

Defining and estimating causal effects for ordinal data is challenging. Standard average treatment effects are not appropriate for ordinal scales, and alternative estimands, such as the probabilities that the treatment outcome exceeds or does not worsen the control outcome, are generally not identifiable. Existing work provides sharp bounds for these quantities based only on marginal distributions. Motivated by a previous observation showing that bounds obtained under an independence working assumption can be substantially tighter, we investigate conditions under which such bounds are valid. We show that commonly used notions of positive dependence, including positive quadrant dependence and positive regression dependence, are not sufficient to justify these bounds. We then propose a new dependence condition, diagonal tail dominance (DTD), under which the independence-based bounds are guaranteed to hold. We explain why this condition is quite strong and may not be appropriate in many settings, limiting the justification for using the independence-based bounds. However, local DTD may be plausible in many applications, and we derive improved bounds that exploit an independence working assumption on selected parts of the probability table. Through theoretical results, numerical examples, and an analysis of data from a clinical trial of a new treatment for acute ischemic stroke, we illustrate the properties of the bounds and the role of the proposed conditions.

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Micha Mandel, Daniel Rodan. 2026-06-14. Bounding Causal Effects for Ordinal Outcomes Under Positive Dependence. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.15754

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