Posterior Twins: Distributional Behavioral Simulation for Enterprise Decisions

Ankit Das

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arXiv · 2606.16415

Posterior Twins: Distributional Behavioral Simulation for Enterprise Decisions

Ankit Das

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Abstract

Enterprise behavioral simulation requires more than producing a plausible response. Many decisions depend on the shape of a population under a proposed action: which segments accept, defect, hesitate, or move into risk-sensitive states. This paper introduces Posterior Twins, a memory-grounded digital-twin approach that represents likely behavior as an updated distribution under a specific decision context. We evaluate a family of Twinning Labs behavioral-model operating points on a 226-example held-out behavioral-response benchmark and report both modal accuracy and Wasserstein-1 distance. The results show that modal accuracy and distributional fidelity identify different operating regimes. TL-Twin Alpha achieves the lowest observed Wasserstein-1 distance in the reported result set ($W_1 = 1.16$), while TL-Twin Delta and TL-Twin Gamma provide balanced operating points near the modal-accuracy frontier. The paper frames these results as a systems result: governed memory, behavioral model routing, scenario orchestration, distributional aggregation, and auditability are necessary for turning simulated behavior into reusable enterprise decision evidence.

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Ankit Das. 2026-06-15. Posterior Twins: Distributional Behavioral Simulation for Enterprise Decisions. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.16415

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