Tipping the Balance: Allee Thresholds, Saddle-Node Bifurcations, and Optimal Sterile-Male Release Strategies for Anopheles Mosquitoes

Abstract

We formulate and analyze a sex- and stage-structured model for Anopheles dynamics under the sterile insect technique (SIT), motivated by the need for tools robust to insecticide resistance and outdoor transmission. The model tracks aquatic stages, adult males, unmated females, and females mated with wild or sterile males; includes egg-laying capacity and larval competition; and uses a refractory period followed by density-dependent mate search. The resulting Holling type-II mating term generates a mate-finding Allee effect. After establishing well-posedness, we prove that this Allee effect makes the mosquito-free equilibrium locally stable for all admissible parameters and globally asymptotically stable when a quick-mate-search reproduction number $R_0^q$ is below one. When $R_0^q>1$, habitat capacity is large, and larval competition is weak, two positive equilibria arise through a saddle-node bifurcation: a stable natural equilibrium and an unstable Allee equilibrium separating persistence from extinction. For a reduced model, a Goh-Volterra Lyapunov functional estimates the persistence basin. We then show how constant and population-responsive sterile-male releases reshape this bistability. Sufficiently large releases annihilate the positive equilibria in a second saddle-node bifurcation, while a sufficiently large constant release drives local elimination from every admissible initial state. Thus SIT need only push the population across the Allee separatrix, after which mate-finding failure can complete extinction. In a free-horizon optimization framework with an Allee-threshold stopping rule, a hybrid release strategy reduces the sterile-male requirement by about $5\%$ relative to the best constant-only strategy and $39\%$ relative to the best population-responsive-only strategy. These results recast the Allee effect as a control lever for vector suppression.