Aggregation as a Double-Edged Sword: Fear, Allee Effects, and Finite-Time Collapse

Kwadwo Antwi-Fordjour; Eric M. Takyi

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arXiv · 2606.17586

Aggregation as a Double-Edged Sword: Fear, Allee Effects, and Finite-Time Collapse

Kwadwo Antwi-Fordjour·Eric M. Takyi

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Abstract

Prey aggregation is widely regarded as a defense against predation, yet we show that in disease-structured populations subject to predator-induced fear and demographic Allee thresholds, aggregation can paradoxically accelerate ecosystem collapse. We develop and analyze a susceptible-infectious-predator model incorporating dual fear responses -- together with a sublinear aggregation-based predation term and an Allee effect. Critically, we derive an explicit upper bound on the extinction time that decreases as predator pressure increases or aggregation strengthens, quantifying for the first time how behavioral and demographic parameters jointly determine the speed of ecological collapse. This finite-time extinction subsequently triggers a cascade collapse of the infected prey and predator populations, driving the entire ecological community to extinction. Bifurcation analysis reveals transcritical, saddle-node, and Hopf bifurcations as fear intensity, aggregation strength, and Allee threshold vary. Two-parameter continuation further identifies the precise regions of the fear--Allee parameter plane in which stable coexistence, oscillatory coexistence, predator exclusion, and finite-time extinction occur, demonstrating that stronger aggregation monotonically enlarges the finite-time extinction region while weaker aggregation supports a richer landscape of coexistence dynamics. These results demonstrate that behavioral defenses operating at the population level can generate abrupt ecological tipping points when they interact with disease dynamics and demographic vulnerability.

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Kwadwo Antwi-Fordjour, Eric M. Takyi. 2026-06-16. Aggregation as a Double-Edged Sword: Fear, Allee Effects, and Finite-Time Collapse. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.17586

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