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arXiv · 2606.17878

Forcing confidence: a Process Tracing approach with a dynamical systems model

Alexandra Gheondea-Eladi·Aurelian Gheondea
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Abstract

We propose a continuous time dynamical system model for tracing the evolution of confidence in a small decision making group by consensus with the possibility that a forcing factor is exerted onto the confidence of the participants. We experimentally check whether a forcing factor appears, where it begins and ends and how it affects the evolution. We find that the equilibrium value of the confidence is lower in the model with the forcing factor than without it, and that the forcing factor can be identified and induces additional oscillations of the confidence level. This is probably one of the first times when a mathematical model is able to speak about visible effects on the confidence process tracing under alterations of its levels. Pragmatically we find a model that captures influence of participants' confidence level by observing oscillations and equilibrium and we experimentally test it with measures of individual "confidence that the decision is correct" throughout the group decision-making.

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Alexandra Gheondea-Eladi, Aurelian Gheondea. 2026-06-16. Forcing confidence: a Process Tracing approach with a dynamical systems model. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.17878

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