Following up the Kepler field with PLATO: Transit Timing Performance

Abstract

The European Space Agency is set to launch PLATO, the third medium-class mission of its Cosmic Vision programme, in early 2027. Using the transit method, PLATO is expected to detect thousands of exoplanets orbiting bright, nearby stars of spectral types F5-K7. Although the mission is primarily designed to enable mass measurements via radial velocities, its precise photometry and long observational baselines may also permit the detection of transit timing variations (TTVs), which can provide complementary dynamical constraints in multi-planet systems. One possible PLATO observing scenario involves a two-year-long observation of a Northern field that may partially or fully overlap with the original Kepler field, creating an opportunity to revisit known multi-planet systems with a photometric baseline exceeding 20 years. We simulate PLATO observations of 152 Kepler host stars containing at least one planet with previously detected TTVs, yielding a sample of 361 transiting planets. Our CCD-level simulations incorporate realistic stellar variability and employ both aperture and point spread function (PSF)-fitting photometry, accounting for each target's real photometric contaminants. While the extended temporal baseline offers the potential for improved dynamical constraints in favourable cases, our simulations show that this potential is strongest for carefully selected systems, as PLATO's smaller collecting area and larger pixel scale limit the achievable per-transit precision relative to Kepler. We identify a subset of systems most likely to benefit from complementary dynamical constraints through PLATO observations.