SearcharxivSearch

arXiv · 2606.22337

Theorist Toolbox: Tools for Agent Based LLM-assisted economic theory Research

Abstract

Empirical economists often start their projects with a toolbox. Shared packages, replication archives, and circulated guides shorten the time between and idea and a rough initial draft. Theorists, on the other-hand, largely start from a blank page. By 2026, large language models can a produce and check nontrivial mathematics. The can also hallucinate and write wrong claims very convincingly. The current bottleneck on machine-assisted theory is no longer production but trust: a model will claim to prove a false theorem as readily as a true one. Building on recent attempts in mathematics, I present 3 methods for doing economic theory with a language model. These methods differ on how the work is verified: a single disciplined pass, an adversarial prover-verifier pair (Claude Opus~4.8 proposing, OpenAI Codex refuting), and a structured multi-agent project with a reviewer gate (inspired by the Google co-mathematician architecture). I demonstrate these protocols on one open worked example: designing a Groves/Pigouvian incentive mechanism for the Gans--Kominers eigengrade model of grade inflation. None of the three runs produced a strict direct-revelation VCG/Clarke mechanism (as requested, perhaps due to the non-existence of such mechanism). Three phenomena recur. First, convergent discovery: two runs derive the same effective-resistance externality kernel on opposite margins. Second, adversarial verification is load-bearing: the pair caught three of its own false claims and the gate rejected a sub-goal. Third, polish is not rigor: the most finished-looking output was the least verified. The methodological takeaway is that external verification, not model capability, is the design variable.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

BibTeXRIS

Moran Koren. 2026-06-21. Theorist Toolbox: Tools for Agent Based LLM-assisted economic theory Research. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.22337

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Social Preferences and Cooperation: Beliefs, Robustness, and the Limits of Altruism

We study a mechanism of cooperation in the Prisoner's Dilemma (PD). Incorporating social preferences as efficiency concerns into the PD game, we study how altruism translates into cooperation. Under complete information, cooperation requires the opponent's altruism to clear a threshold. We then introduce a subjective extension of Bayesian Nash equilibrium that relaxes the Common Prior Assumption, letting players hold heterogeneous, potentially misspecified beliefs about each other's altruistic type. Cooperation then depends on beliefs about altruism rather than altruism itself, and can be sustained even when opponents are, on average, only weakly altruistic. When fear of exploitation dominates the temptation to defect, beliefs about the opponent's cooperation become strategic complements, so a cooperative and an uncooperative equilibrium can coexist under identical payoffs and an identical, correctly specified prior. Using multiplier preferences, we then study how robust this belief-driven cooperation is to model misspecification. Cooperation is fragile: it survives only above a threshold level of confidence in one's own belief, and can unravel even when the belief itself correctly supports cooperation. As a formal extension, the same robust-control apparatus, applied to a player's action choice, nests Nash equilibrium, Bayesian Nash equilibrium, and logit Quantal Response Equilibrium as limiting cases. Cooperation depends less on how altruistic agents are than on what they believe about each other, and how confident they are that this belief is right.

econ.TH

Utility-Level-Dependent Ambiguity

Experimental evidence suggests that ambiguity-sensitive choice can vary systematically with the circumstances of a decision. This paper isolates one channel within a stable preference relation: ambiguity weighting may depend on the act's certainty-equivalent level. After the standard Anscombe-Aumann calibration of consequence utility, a set of behavioral axioms yields a unique continuous family of normalized monotone capacities $\{\nu_v\}_{v\in(0,1)}$. Each nonendpoint act is evaluated by the Choquet integral associated with the capacity at its own interior certainty-equivalent level, while nonendpoint acts on the same indifference surface share the same capacity. Binary event comparisons identify local event weights at each elicited level and trace their cross-level variation, providing tests of the fixed-capacity restriction. Local uncertainty aversion is equivalent to convexity of $\nu_v$ and yields an implicit multiple-priors representation with certainty-equivalent-indexed local cores. Certainty translation invariance holds if and only if the capacity is fixed across levels, recovering the maintained nondegenerate fixed-capacity Choquet expected utility benchmark; global mixture-betweenness yields implicit additive utility, and imposing both restrictions recovers full-support subjective expected utility. The capacity schedule is a reduced-form ambiguity weighting whose variation may reflect changes in ambiguity perception, ambiguity attitude, or both.

econ.TH

The Attention Cost of Stable Matching

In large markets, scarce attention limits partner evaluation and creates allocation loss, which stability magnifies. In an independent random market with average executable degree $d$, unmatched shares fall at rates $e^{-\sqrt d}$ under stability and $e^{-d}$ under maximum matching on the same graph. Changing consideration can make applications rejected in a provisional active-screen computation relevant again. Exact query-neutral implementation must retain allocation-relevant off-screen authorizations; otherwise, missing authorization must be reacquired. Limited-attention deferred acceptance (LA-DA) preserves valid authorizations and reengages eligible pairs. Conditional on exact next-best information and persistent execution rights, adaptive discovery saves a logarithmic factor in reached proposals relative to independent exposure. In an application to speed dating, bilateral reports let us compare stable and maximum matching on restricted graphs, separating missed opportunities from same-graph stability loss. In Chilean school choice, we document 9,502 applicants accepting higher-ranked or new placements through retained rankings.

econ.TH