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arXiv · 2606.23072

Towards time-variant scenario reduction for energy system optimization modeling under uncertainty

Yannick Werner·Juan Miguel Morales·Salvador Pineda·Sonja Wogrin
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Abstract

Stochastic programming has become a popular tool for supporting decision-making under uncertainty in the long-term planning of energy systems. Existing scenario reduction methods, however, are naive about the long-term temporal nature of scenarios, which limits their efficiency in reducing model size. In this paper, we overcome this inefficiency by proposing a novel time-variant scenario reduction framework that explicitly allows for varying scenario aggregations over time. As a result, scenario probabilities become time-variant, enabling not only the accurate capture of scenario realizations but also their probabilities at the time steps that drive investment decisions. This substantially increases flexibility compared to traditional time-invariant methods, which we demonstrate on a two-stage stochastic generation expansion planning problem with uncertain renewable power production.

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Yannick Werner, Juan Miguel Morales, Salvador Pineda, Sonja Wogrin. 2026-06-22. Towards time-variant scenario reduction for energy system optimization modeling under uncertainty. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.23072

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