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arXiv · 2606.29175

Direct Causation in International Humanitarian Law and the Challenge of AI-Mediated Civilian Cyber Operations

Alice Saito·Harold Godsoe·Phan Xuan Tan
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Abstract

International humanitarian law protects civilians from direct attack unless and for such time as they take direct part in hostilities, with the ICRC's 2009 Interpretive Guidance operationalising this rule through a three-criterion cumulative test. This paper argues that AI-mediated civilian cyber operations challenge the direct causation element of this test in a structurally specific way: when a civilian deploys an autonomous multi-agent cyber system of the kind recently demonstrated in offensive AI research, the "one causal step" standard fails because harm is produced by system-generated decisions made after human disengagement, and the integral-part requirement does not extend because it presupposes downstream human contributors whose conduct can be independently classified. The framework therefore defaults to treating such deployments as indirect participation, in tension with its purpose of capturing civilians who personally take part in hostilities. Beyond the doctrinal analysis, this paper identifies goal-specification granularity as the property on which the integral-part test's concreteness component implicitly turns, classifies AI-mediated operations along a five-level spectrum, and argues that existing technical AI governance instruments do not log or report this property.

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Alice Saito, Harold Godsoe, Phan Xuan Tan. 2026-06-28. Direct Causation in International Humanitarian Law and the Challenge of AI-Mediated Civilian Cyber Operations. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.29175

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