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arXiv · 2607.00421

When Self-Protection Backfires: Adaptive Contact Behavior Expands the Endemic Basin in an Addiction Model with Nonlinear Relapse

Fabio Sanchez
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Abstract

We extend the Susceptible--Addicted--Reformed (SAR) model of \cite{sanchez2023}, which exhibits a forward--backward bifurcation driven by nonlinear relapse, by embedding an epi-economic behavioral layer in the spirit of \cite{fenichel2011}. At-risk individuals choose contact levels by solving a finite-horizon dynamic program that balances the utility of social activity against the expected cost of addiction. We prove that the basic reproduction number \( R_0 \) and the local stability of the addiction-free equilibrium remain unchanged by the behavioral layer. However, the endemic structure is fundamentally altered: the behavioral response collapses exactly to a scalar mixing factor \( M \), and the bifurcation curve factorizes as \( R_0(a) = R_{\rm cl}(a)/M(a) \). This yields an exact comparison principle: the saddle-node fold shifts to lower \( R_0 \) (enlarging the endemic basin) if and only if \( M \ge 1 \) along the branch. For rational self-protective behavior under conditional proportional mixing, we prove \( M \ge 1 \), so the basin enlarges; the opposite holds under frequency-dependent mixing. Numerical continuation shows that, at baseline parameters, the fold moves left by \( \Delta R_0 \approx -0.035 \) and the critical initial addiction level drops by 2--6 percentage points. Gillespie simulations confirm that the enlarged basin increases the stochastic probability of addiction establishment by up to threefold near threshold. This counterintuitive result that rational self-protection can make addiction easier to establish has direct implications for prevention policy.

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Fabio Sanchez. 2026-07-01. When Self-Protection Backfires: Adaptive Contact Behavior Expands the Endemic Basin in an Addiction Model with Nonlinear Relapse. https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.00421

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