Not Every Sync Is Safe: Calibrated DiLoCo Scheduling for Shared AI Infrastructure

Abstract

DiLoCo-style training reduces communication by letting learner islands train locally before occasional outer synchronization, making it attractive for fragmented industrial AI fleets where training shares hardware with latency-sensitive serving. The question for such fleets is when an outer merge is worth its system cost, and whether choosing \emph{which} windows to defer matters at all. Existing scheduling studies evaluate workload-aware policies against fixed-period baselines, but most omit the control that isolates timing from budget: matched random deferral, which inherits the controller's synchronization budget but is not itself deployable. This omission is consequential: across controlled stress tests and real vLLM sidecar replays, matched random ties or beats every forecast-free policy we test, so gains reported against weaker baselines cannot be attributed to window choice. We fill this gap with Workload-Aware DiLoCo (WA-DiLoCo), a score-based controller that weighs learner progress against fleet pressure, and a calibration protocol that determines when matched random can be beaten, then demonstrate that it can. In the bursty regime where calibration exposes request-overlap structure, adding a one-step EWMA burst forecast to the online controller beats matched random in real vLLM sidecar replay, reducing SLO violations from 6.54\% to 5.09\% (8 of 10 seeds, $p=0.021$); offline Calibrated-WA, a non-deployable bound, shows the remaining headroom at 4.45\% versus 6.26\%. The deployable lesson remains the protocol: report real-sidecar effect-size transfer, a no-sync load match, and a matched-random envelope before claiming serving-SLO improvement.