Enhancing a high resolution data-driven weather prediction model with surface descriptors

Abstract

We study the importance of surface characteristics when forecasting near-surface variables with a data-driven weather prediction model. To target the challenge of predicting small-scale weather conditions at high resolution, we introduce a range of surface descriptors in the training of a state-of-the-art data-driven model. The input data includes surface descriptors inherited from the numerical weather prediction model used to produce the training dataset and topographic neighbourhood indices. We found that errors of 2-metre temperature and 10-metre wind speed forecasts were reduced by 1.9% and 3.0% respectively compared to a baseline model over the model domain. Over certain surfaces, the improvements were significantly larger. For example, we found a 12% reduction of temperature mean absolute errors over urban areas when the urban fraction was included in the model input. Furthermore, we investigated how the model responded to removal of glaciers, resulting in an increase of temperature. This indicates that 1) the model produce a physically reasonable response and 2) input datasets can be updated without the need to retrain the model. The latter suggests a great benefit for operational systems as training is expensive compared to running these models. This study highlights the importance of including surface conditions in the prediction of near-surface variables.