A Differentiable Covariance Calculus for Linear Gaussian Bayesian Networks

Abstract

Linear Gaussian Bayesian networks, equivalently linear Gaussian structural equation models, recur across statistics, control, and communications; in the vector-valued setting that motivates this work, their nodes are vectors and their edges are matrices. Every quantity of interest is a function of sub-blocks of the joint covariance, which is itself a classical, differentiable map (the K-recursion) from the local edge and innovation parameters. Yet the resulting inference and estimation tasks are usually derived and implemented separately, per task and per topology. Taking this covariance chart as a single backend, we build on it a unified, differentiable covariance calculus in which each task reduces to a few linear-algebra primitives on the one covariance, and automatic differentiation returns every gradient in a single backward sweep, over arbitrary vector-valued directed acyclic graphs and parametrizations, including tied and structured ones. The calculus covers conditioning, conditional-independence testing through mutual information, maximum-likelihood estimation with hidden nodes, and the Slepian--Bangs Fisher information with the local identifiability and Cram\'er--Rao reliability it induces. It is validated on a linear Gaussian state-space model and a skip-connected (non-chain) extension against the Kalman recursions, d-separation, and the Cram\'er--Rao bound.