Network Interdependency-Informed Power System Dynamic Trajectory Prediction Utilizing Black-Box Modeling of Multiple Inverter-Based Resources

Abstract

Black-box modeling of inverter-based resources (IBRs) has attracted growing interest for real-time grid operation and control in the presence of proprietary electronic control architectures. Existing machine learning (ML)-based online dynamic trajectory prediction approaches using IBR black-box models either significantly accumulate prediction errors when multiple surrogates are simultaneously used or ignore measurement errors, limiting their deployment in practical grids. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a novel network interdependency-informed ML algorithm for online dynamic trajectory prediction in IBR-integrated power systems. A modular spatiotemporal attention network (STAN)-based predictor for the black-box modeling of each IBR unit is first proposed. Utilizing past measurements, the proposed STAN can effectively capture and predict the spatiotemporal dynamics of IBRs by employing an attention mechanism to attend to the most pertinent features for trajectory prediction. Furthermore, a novel hybrid physics-informed loss function that integrates a decoupled linearized AC power flow formulation is proposed. The proposed loss function effectively ensures physical consistency of predictions within network operation while avoiding the computational complexity of iterative power flow solving, thereby enabling efficient gradient backpropagation and overall improved prediction accuracy. Case studies on the IEEE 14- and WECC 179-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed method achieves significant accuracy enhancement and robustness against measurement errors, outperforming recent ML-based trajectory prediction methods.