Global reanalysis from observations alone with machine learning

Abstract

Earth system reanalysis datasets are foundational for weather and climate research and provide the gridded training data used by most machine learning weather prediction systems. Here we show results from a prototype system that suggest that machine learning models trained only on Earth system observations can potentially be used to generate multi-decade global reanalyses without using physics-based numerical models. The resulting gridded fields capture large-scale atmospheric structure and variability across multiple timescales, while exhibiting signs of physical coherence in several key dynamical diagnostics. Evaluations of the prototype against held-out independent atmospheric observations indicate that the root mean square vector error of upper-level winds is close to that of ERA5 when compared at a consistent resolution, and that the standard deviation of the error at the surface is between that of 4th- and 5th-generation ECMWF reanalyses (ERA-Interim and ERA5). Furthermore, while traditional reanalysis production is computationally expensive, typically taking several years to produce, the reanalysis presented here was generated during the course of a single working day. These results suggest that observation-trained machine learning models offer a promising new approach for reanalysis production from observations alone.