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arXiv · 2607.11220

Typhoon intensity ReAnalysis (TyRA)

Kosuke Ito·Masataka Aizawa·Udai Shimada·Yasuhiro Kawabata·Munehiko Yamaguchi
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Abstract

Best-track data have been typically used to explore long-term changes in typhoon intensity over the western North Pacific (WNP). However, the methods used to construct best-track intensities have changed over the past several decades. Several attempts have been made to achieve homogeneous intensity analyses based on the Dvorak method, but their consistency with direct observations can still be improved. This study tries to accurately explain minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP) from aircraft observations during 1981-1986 using CI numbers and other parameters as in Aizawa et al. (2024). Using the optimized coefficients, we reanalyzed MSLP for 1987-2024. The reanalyzed MSLPs were converted into maximum wind speeds using Knaff and Zehr (2007). This Typhoon intensity ReAnalysis (TyRA) exhibited a slightly decreasing trend in the number of intense typhoons, which was not statistically significant. Compared with TyRA, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-track contained a larger number of intense typhoons from the late 1980s to the mid-2000s, whereas the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo best-track contained a smaller number. In TyRA, typhoons recently weakened over the eastern part of the WNP with some statistical significance. It can be explained by the decrease of mean age of typhoons after typhoon genesis. Large differences among the RSMC Tokyo and JTWC best-track data and TyRA were found for rapid intensification. Furthermore, although previous studies reported that errors in intensity forecasts by the RSMC Tokyo increased in the mid-2000s, the changes in the quality of the RSMC Tokyo best-track data partly explain this.

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Kosuke Ito, Masataka Aizawa, Udai Shimada, Yasuhiro Kawabata, Munehiko Yamaguchi. 2026-07-13. Typhoon intensity ReAnalysis (TyRA). https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.11220

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