Debris Evolution from Spacecraft Fragmentation in Earth-Moon Distant Retrograde Orbits

Abstract

With the rapid surge in lunar exploration and the planned expansion of cislunar infrastructure, cislunar space has become a strategic focal point for global aerospace activities. This proliferation of spacecraft heightens the risk of fragmentation events, such as unintended explosions or orbital collisions which serve as the primary source of hazardous orbital debris. Given the potential threat these fragments pose to mission safety and long-term orbital sustainability, it is imperative to investigate their dynamical behavior within the Earth-Moon system. This study evaluates the dispersion of debris clouds following potential breakup events on Distant Retrograde Orbits (DROs) over a 30-day propagation period. The Circular Restricted Three-Body Problem (CR3BP) model is used to construct the reference orbits, while the NASA Standard Breakup Model is applied to simulate fragment generation at multiple locations along three DROs of varying sizes. These fragments are then propagated using the Bicircular Restricted Four-Body Problem (BCR4BP) for 30 days. To account for the variability of these events, multiple initial positions along each orbit are analyzed to capture a comprehensive range of post-explosion scenarios. Our analysis quantifies the fate of fragments within this window, specifically focusing on the escape mechanisms and the percentages of debris that either depart from the Earth-Moon gravitational sphere of influence or impact the lunar surface. Furthermore, we introduce an analytical approach to assess the potential collision risk to resident space objects operating within the vicinity of the parent orbit. The results provide insights into debris evolution and offer a foundation for developing safety guidelines for future cislunar activities.