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arXiv · 2607.16531

The Origins of Transient Bimodality

Kaan Öcal·Augustinas Sukys·Aanjaneya Kumar·James Holehouse
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Abstract

Many dynamical systems exhibit diverse modes of behavior. In biology, such modes can represent individual or cell fates. While the emergence of multimodality is commonly studied, transient bimodality is much less well understood. Under transient bimodality, a system moving from a well-defined initial to a final state transiently undergoes a bifurcation into multiple probability modes. This noise-driven phenomenon can significantly impact processes such as cell differentiation and speciation in the presence of changing environmental conditions. We detail a theoretical approach for understanding transient bimodality connecting results from ecology, optics, chemical reaction networks and cell biology, propose a ``minimal model'' of transient bimodality and derive a general criterion for its presence. We show that fast-to-slow dynamics can lead to transient bimodality in addition to the well-known case of slow-to-fast dynamics. Finally, we discuss the role of transient bimodality across the scientific literature, with emphasis on biochemical kinetics and gene regulation.

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Kaan Öcal, Augustinas Sukys, Aanjaneya Kumar, James Holehouse. 2026-07-17. The Origins of Transient Bimodality. https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.16531

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