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arXiv · 2607.22638

Mean-field model for pollution abatement via cap and trade mechanism

Ofelia Bonesini·Giacomo Lanaro
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Abstract

We consider a mean-field model of competitive firms operating under an AK production technology, where output is proportional to capital and production generates emissions. In this setting, we introduce a regulator whose objective is the reduction of cumulative emissions, in the spirit of Emission Trading Systems (ETS), where firms must hold and trade permits to cover their emissions in a regulated market. The regulator acts as a central planner and controls the supply of permits, balancing emission reduction and aggregate output. Permits are allocated through a dynamic auction mechanism that adjusts supply in real time to achieve both market efficiency and the regulator's long-term goals. The regulator and the firms interact through the endogenous permit price, which is determined by the regulator's policy and affects firms' optimal strategies via the market clearing condition. The regulator's optimal policy is derived within a Mean-Field Control (MFC) framework. Exploiting the linear-quadratic structure and the presence of common noise, we characterise the equilibrium via a system of coupled FBSDEs and associated Riccati equations. Our results provide a tractable characterisation of optimal permit allocation policies in large economies and offer insights into the design of efficient emission trading mechanisms.

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Ofelia Bonesini, Giacomo Lanaro. 2026-06-22. Mean-field model for pollution abatement via cap and trade mechanism. https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.22638

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