Interpreting the stacked kinetic SZ effect I: velocity reconstruction and non-linear velocity effects

Abstract

The stacked kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) signal probes the velocity-weighted projected gas momentum around galaxies, and is emerging as a powerful probe of gas fractions and baryonic feedback. Its interpretation, however, rests on several assumptions that we test in this pair of companion papers. Using the FLAMINGO hydrodynamical simulations and DESI-like galaxy mocks for luminous red galaxies (LRGs), the bright galaxy sample (BGS), and emission-line galaxies (ELGs), we identify the ingredients required to model the signal to better than $10\%$. This first paper focuses on velocities. We decompose the signal into a dominant bulk-flow term, proportional to the mean optical depth, plus non-linear terms arising from the small-scale gas momentum and its coupling to the stacking velocity. When the stacking velocities are reconstructed from linear information in real space alone -- an idealisation which is not possible in practice -- the non-linear terms cancel and the signal traces the mean optical depth to within a few per cent. When the stacking velocity instead retains non-linear information or is affected by redshift-space distortions, the non-linear terms suppress the signal by $10-20\%$: a $1-2\sigma$ effect for current data that is expected to be statistically significant for upcoming surveys, and one that depends only weakly on baryonic feedback. Our results reveal a trade-off: velocity estimators that retain small-scale information boost signal-to-noise but require simulation-based modelling, whereas conservative reconstructions simplify the interpretation at the cost of signal-to-noise.