Global-mean surface air temperature change overestimates global warming rate

Abstract

Current climate policies are targeted at slowing down the global warming rate, or the global mean surface air temperature (SAT) change ({\Delta}Tmean), which is measured by the arithmetic mean approach under the assumption that SAT changes are symmetrically distributed. However, in reality, the SAT change is asymmetric in nature and its influence on the {\Delta}Tmean interpretation seldom received attention in previous research about climate change. This study theorizes, based on the image histogram approach, that while {\Delta}Tmean measures the Earth's overall SAT change, it yields a value larger than the global-scale SAT change ({\Delta}Tgs) because of the asymmetrical distribution of SAT change. Results show that {\Delta}Tmean is greater than that based on {\Delta}Tgs by 0.19-0.23{\deg}C from 2000-2019, relative to the global SAT in 1979. In future climate projections, where more significant inhomogeneous warming is expected, the disagreement between {\Delta}Tmean and {\Delta}Tgs reach 0.27-0.54{\deg}C by the end of the 21st century (2080-2099) under different emission scenarios. The large difference between {\Delta}Tmean and {\Delta}Tgs implies that there is a net positive regional-scale warming effect over the globe which is mainly contributed by Arctic Amplification. This paper constitutes a warning that extreme regional warming effects could have large impacts on the interpretation of {\Delta}Tmean, which is often considered in climate assessments and policies making, and illustrates the limitations and cautions inherent in using {\Delta}Tmean as the only indicator of the global warming rate.