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arXiv · 2607.24084

Simulation-Free Bayesian Power and Sample Size Calculations for Bayes Factors in Single-Arm Phase II Trials with Binary Endpoints

Riko Kelter·Kathrin Möllenhoff
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Abstract

Bayes factors provide a coherent Bayesian measure of evidence for competing hypotheses and have recently been used as the basis for single-arm phase II trial designs with binary endpoints. In contrast to classical power analyses based on test statistics and p-values, Bayes-factor based sample size calculations target high probabilities of obtaining compelling evidence either for a relevant treatment effect or for the null hypothesis, given pre-specified Bayes-factor thresholds. This paper explains how to design single-arm phase II binomial trials using Bayes factors with a focus on simulation-free calibration of Bayesian and frequentist power, type-I-error, and the probability of compelling evidence for the null. Two oncology-motivated examples illustrate the approach and are implemented in the bfbin2arm R package, with code provided in an appendix. The methodology fits naturally into current efforts to innovate and modernize clinical trial design through Bayesian and adaptive methods.

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Riko Kelter, Kathrin Möllenhoff. 2026-07-27. Simulation-Free Bayesian Power and Sample Size Calculations for Bayes Factors in Single-Arm Phase II Trials with Binary Endpoints. https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.24084

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