Finite-Time Chaos Diagnostics and Noise-Induced Basin Merging in a Two-Dimensional Map

Abstract

Real-world systems, from climate models to power grids, often fluctuate due to sensor noise, drift, or environmental variability, yet standard chaos diagnostics assume fixed parameters and asymptotic horizons. We introduce a finite-time framework for two-dimensional maps under independent, identically distributed parameter noise. First, we prove that the maximal finite-time Lyapunov exponent converges, after centering and scaling, to a Gaussian law whose mean and variance depend explicitly on the map's Jacobian statistics. Second, we develop an attractor separation algorithm that uses FTLE histograms and a geometry-based classifier to partition phase space into chaotic and periodic regions under noise. Third, we validate our theory numerically on the noisy Domenicali map, demonstrating Gaussian FTLE distributions, predictable shifts in Kaplan-Yorke dimension, and a sharp noise threshold for basin escape. Finally, we estimate the critical noise level $\sigma_c$ at which attractor coalescence occurs, using three complementary numerical methods to bound it above and to pinpoint an estimate.