Cluster on the Subject, Not the Record: Confidence Intervals and Simultaneous Bands for Additive-Hazards Sequential Trial Emulation

M. Ehsan Karim

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arXiv · 2608.01429

Cluster on the Subject, Not the Record: Confidence Intervals and Simultaneous Bands for Additive-Hazards Sequential Trial Emulation

M. Ehsan Karim

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Abstract

Sequential trial emulation (STE) estimates the effect of a sustained treatment by stacking nested emulated trials with inverse-probability weighting. Additive-hazards STE estimators of the marginal risk difference recommend the nonparametric bootstrap without evaluating its coverage. Using a correctly-specifiable mechanism (up to a small, disclosed residual), we compare analytic and bootstrap standard errors for both estimands. Exploiting the closed-form linearity of the additive-hazards estimating equation, we derive the influence functions and prove the default row-level robust variance inconsistent for the marginal risk-difference curve, and show the same failure empirically for the constant hazard difference: the row-level variance omits a within-subject cross-trial covariance that is positive under a sign condition we verify across our mechanisms, and is anticonservative at every horizon except the first - only there, where the covariance is zero, is the row-level standard error unimpaired. The subject-clustered variance and multiplier bootstrap are consistent for the fixed-weight linearisation and support simultaneous confidence bands, whose measured coverage is 0.88. Across our simulations the model-based and row-level robust intervals are anticonservative and worsen with sample size, coverage falling to 0.71 at n=5000; clustering leaves the constant-hazard-difference coverage near 0.86 at n=5000, and the multiplier bootstrap leaves the risk-difference-curve coverage near 0.90 (0.86 at the longest horizon). The STE constant hazard difference is a design-weighted summary of a time-varying effect, dependent on the trial structure. We illustrate on the Stanford heart transplant data and provide them in the steCI R package.

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M. Ehsan Karim. 2026-08-02. Cluster on the Subject, Not the Record: Confidence Intervals and Simultaneous Bands for Additive-Hazards Sequential Trial Emulation. https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.01429

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