Bayesian Inference with Structured Signal: Static Replica Symmetry Breaking on the Nishimori Line in the Planted Spin Glass

Abstract

A common assumption in theoretical models of Bayesian inference is that the signal has i.i.d. components. To study the effect of correlations in the signal prior, we consider a minimal model: the planted spin glass on random regular graphs, where the signal is sampled from an Ising model with coupling $\kappa$. Depending on the phase of the prior, we find that adding structure in the signal can either help or hinder inference. In the paramagnetic regime, correlations in the signal lower the reconstruction threshold, so that weaker signal strength is sufficient for recovery. In the ferromagnetic regime, the prior alone already enables partial recovery, and we identify the threshold above which the observations provide additional information. When the prior itself is in a replica symmetry breaking (RSB) phase, we detect a static RSB transition in the posterior under Nishimori conditions. This provides an example where a non-separable, correlated prior leads to static RSB in a Bayes-optimal inference problem. We discuss the consequences of this glassy phase for algorithmic performance, in particular for Belief Propagation.