Achieving First-Order Statistical Improvements in Data-Driven Optimization: From No-Free-Lunch to Amplified Decision Perturbation

Abstract

Recent proliferation of data-optimization integration has led to a range of methods that aim to improve the statistical performance of data-driven optimization decisions. However, while many of these methods are motivated intuitively from a robustness or regularization perspective, their resulting statistical benefits are often unclear and, even if available, are established on a case-by-case basis. We provide a systematic dissection of data-driven optimization formulations using the view of "directionally perturbed" empirical optimization (EO). Specifically, this umbrella of formulations, which we call "EO+", covers many existing data-driven optimization methods, including regularization, distributionally robust optimization, transfer learning, and analogous methods for contextual optimization. On the one hand, we argue that without additional, correctly specified, side information, any EO+ method can result in at most second-order improvements. This provides a negative conclusion, namely ``no free lunch is possible", on the statistical power of EO+. On the other hand, we show that when leveraging side information that is geometrically effective, achieving first-order improvements is possible by choosing hyperparameters that are significantly larger than what is typically suggested in the literature. Moreover, we construct a principled methodology based on excess risk estimation, via either system knowledge or bootstrap resampling, to maximize the first-order gain. We demonstrate how this gain connects to the control-variate principle, a variance reduction technique in the Monte Carlo simulation literature, which helps explain why geometrically effective side information is necessary.