Short-term load forecasting under EU-AI Act Requirements in Safety-Critical Environments: Results from a 41-day live challenge on the aggregated German transmission-grid load

Thomas Bartz-Beielstein; Inalbek Akiev; Lalo Mohamad

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arXiv · 2608.05018

Short-term load forecasting under EU-AI Act Requirements in Safety-Critical Environments: Results from a 41-day live challenge on the aggregated German transmission-grid load

Thomas Bartz-Beielstein·Inalbek Akiev·Lalo Mohamad

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Abstract

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a vital role in the electric power industry. It is relevant for critical infrastructure. STLF is no longer purely a performance and accuracy problem, because determinism, fail-safe handling, minimal-attack surface, and no dead code are software-engineering requirements rather than optional extras. This report describes results from a 41-day live challenge that evaluated an STLF pipeline for the aggregated German transmission-grid load. The STLF pipeline predicts the 24 hourly load values of a target day from European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) data. It is based on the open-source Python library spotforecast2-safe, which tries to implement the EU-AI Act Requirements in Safety-Critical Environments by design. The STLF pipeline includes gap- and anomaly-aware data preprocessing, calendar and weather covariates, and a forecasting algorithm. Forecast quality is compared to the official ENTSO-E day-ahead forecast. The spotforecast2-safe pipeline beats the ENTSO-E baseline. In-context models show competitive performance. Transparent, deterministic, low-cost, and auditable local models (referred to as macl2l in this report) are competitive with more than 100-million-parameter large, energy-intensive pre-trained foundation models such as chronos-2. The challenge implementation, the submission history of all teams, and the archived leaderboard are publicly available.

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Thomas Bartz-Beielstein, Inalbek Akiev, Lalo Mohamad. 2026-08-05. Short-term load forecasting under EU-AI Act Requirements in Safety-Critical Environments: Results from a 41-day live challenge on the aggregated German transmission-grid load. https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.05018

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