Random Triangles on Concentric Circles

Abstract

Lewis Carroll's Pillow Problem asks for the probability that three points chosen at random in the plane form an obtuse triangle. The question has no answer until the sampling scheme is pinned down, and the cleanest way to pin it down is to put the points on a circle, which gives 3/4. This paper solves the version in which the three vertices lie on three concentric circles of radii $r_1$, $r_2$, and $r_3$. The answer is a sum of three terms, each the probability that a weighted sum of two independent arcsine variables exceeds a threshold, and it collapses to 3/4 when the radii are equal. Reading the formula gives closed forms in two subfamilies, one an arcsine and one the Legendre chi function; a Pythagorean condition deciding which vertex can carry the obtuse angle; and the bound $1/2 \leq P < 1$, with the minimum attained only when one vertex sits at the common center and the other two radii are equal. Conditioning on the radii shows that the same formula is the kernel for every independent rotationally symmetric sampling scheme, so the bound applies to all of them at once and averaging over Rayleigh radii recovers the known Gaussian value of 3/4 in closed form, supplying a link between the circular and Gaussian conventions that the literature records as missing. Simulation confirms the results throughout.