Population-Level Generative Modeling for Ranking Data

Abstract

Ranking data arise in scientific and machine learning applications, including recommendation systems, information retrieval, voting, marketing, and AI preference ranking from human feedback. Existing statistical work has primarily focused on inference tasks such as preference estimation, rank aggregation, and ranking prediction. However, generating realistic synthetic rankings from an observed population is important for privacy-preserving data sharing, benchmark construction, simulation, and uncertainty quantification. This task is challenging because rankings are high-dimensional combinatorial objects with non-Euclidean dependence structures, while ranking populations often exhibit substantial preference heterogeneity. We propose a framework for population-level generative modeling through a latent preference simplex embedding. It estimates a low-dimensional latent preference simplex through a likelihood-based ranking model, leverages flow matching to learn the population distribution of latent preferences, and generates new rankings through the fitted probabilistic ranking model. We show that ranking generation admits an oracle reduction to latent distribution learning and derive finite-sample generative guarantees that clarify how the number of items, ranking length, and latent dimension affect accuracy. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate improved population-level fidelity and provide a statistically interpretable representation of preference heterogeneity.