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arXiv · 2608.08689

A Structural Dynamics Graph World Model: Unified Modeling, Constrained Rollout, and Interpretable Calibration

Wei Wang·Yaosen Chen·Han Yang·Yuegen Liu·Mingli Luo·Xinxin Jiao·Xuming Wen·Ming Liu
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Abstract

The state evolution of a complex system arises jointly from object laws, relational propagation, domain conservation, and unmodeled error. Forcing all sources into one black box makes mechanism attribution and constraint preservation unauditable; forcing every mechanism into one equation family discards mature domain solvers. We propose SD-GWM, a Structural Dynamics Graph World Model as an executable structural contract: nodes declare self-dynamics S, edges declare neighbor graph-coupled dynamics N---both fixed-form mechanism assets (rules, ODEs, solvers) calibrating only authorized parameters. An optional bounded residual R concentrates learnability, while a global projection maps states to feasibility, enforcing constraints without guaranteeing accuracy gains. On eight pre-registered research questions, SD-GWM delivers (i) heterogeneous integration: rules and solvers plug in natively; (ii) semantic fidelity: disabling R preserves source semantics bit-for-bit, with four theory properties under explicit proof/empirical boundaries; (iii) auditable governance: stepwise traces enable counterfactual fault localization (top-1 = 1.0) without post-hoc approximations. On a semi-synthetic flood testbed and USGS streamflow, SD-GWM reduces constraint violations to floating-point tolerance in analytical tests and to zero in semi-synthetic and real-data cases. Persistence matches SD-GWM in calm periods, but during a 254-day extreme-flood shift persistence and all neural baselines collapse (90-min RMSE 892-3007 cfs) while SD-GWM holds at 108 cfs (8-28x gain). The bounded residual cuts RMSE ~50% only under backbone bias. We position SD-GWM not as a universally superior forecaster, but as a verifiable substrate for auditable, constraint-safe spatiotemporal mining.

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Wei Wang, Yaosen Chen, Han Yang, Yuegen Liu, Mingli Luo, Xinxin Jiao, Xuming Wen, Ming Liu. 2026-08-09. A Structural Dynamics Graph World Model: Unified Modeling, Constrained Rollout, and Interpretable Calibration. https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.08689

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