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arXiv · 2608.10728

Win-Ratio Regression for Prioritized Composite Outcomes in Observational Studies: Doubly Robust and Efficient Estimation with Future-Score Correction

Zhuochao Huang·Lucy Shao·Yi Guo·Xin M. Tu·Changyong Feng·Tuo Lin
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Abstract

Prioritized pairwise outcomes are useful when clinical events follow a natural hierarchy, but censoring before pair resolution complicates estimation. We develop a win-ratio regression framework for this setting by defining a complete-data target over follow-up and deriving an estimating equation for the observed data. The central idea is future-score correction (FC): when censoring prevents later pairwise comparisons from being observed, the method replaces the remaining score with its conditional expectation given the observed history. This correction recovers pairwise information beyond that provided by inverse censoring weights alone. Additionally, we incorporate treatment weighting and baseline outcome augmentation to address baseline confounding. Together, these components yield double robustness for treatment assignment and censoring. Inference is obtained from U-statistic theory. Under standard regularity conditions, the AIPW-FC estimator is asymptotically normal and efficient when all nuisance functions are correctly specified. Simulations with 30%, 50%, and 65% censoring show that efficiency gains from future-score correction increase with the censoring rate, with relative efficiency reaching 1.50 under 65% censoring and near-nominal coverage for AIPW-FC. An application to OneFlorida electronic health record data illustrates the method for a composite outcome that prioritizes death over hospitalization.

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Zhuochao Huang, Lucy Shao, Yi Guo, Xin M. Tu, Changyong Feng, Tuo Lin. 2026-08-11. Win-Ratio Regression for Prioritized Composite Outcomes in Observational Studies: Doubly Robust and Efficient Estimation with Future-Score Correction. https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.10728

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