A Quantum Optimization Framework for Data-Assimilation-Augmented Parameter Estimation

Abstract

Parameter estimation is a fundamental challenge in the calibration of ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, where repeated numerical integration can lead to high computational cost. In this work, we investigate whether quantum algorithms can be leveraged to assist parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamical systems. We develop a hybrid classical-quantum framework that reformulates a data-assimilation-augmented parameter estimation problem as a combinatorial optimization task. Model dynamics and data assimilation are enforced entirely on the classical side, while the resulting parameter estimation cost functional is discretized and approximated by a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) surrogate. This surrogate is mapped to an Ising Hamiltonian, and quantum optimizers are used to search for low-energy configurations corresponding to candidate parameter estimates. We apply the framework to SIS and SIR epidemic models, the chaotic Lorenz-63 system, and a high-dimensional two-layer Lorenz-96 system. In this setting, the method is used to recover classical system parameters from partial state observations across steady-state, chaotic, and high-dimensional multiscale dynamical systems. Numerical experiments with synthetic data show that the proposed approach accurately recovers parameters while requiring data-assimilation solves only on a prescribed coarse grid. The framework avoids quantum state tomography, illustrating a viable pathway for integrating quantum optimization into data-driven parameter estimation for nonlinear dynamical systems.