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arXiv · 2608.16325

The Best Are Always the Best: COVID-19 Lockdown Stringency and the Dispersion of Olympic Medal Outcomes

Fernando Delbianco·Federico Fioravanti·Fernando Tohmé
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Abstract

We ask whether COVID-19 lockdown stringency altered national Olympic performance between Rio 2016 and Tokyo 2020, using the Oxford Stringency Index and the 99 countries that won a medal in either edition. As in \citet{liu2024}, mean performance is unaffected: stringency is insignificant in every OLS and ANOVA specification. The distribution is not. Among the 84 non-traditionally dominant nations, medal changes are three to six times more dispersed in high-stringency countries; the difference is absent among dominant nations and concentrated in men's events. A common shock left the competitive hierarchy intact while sharply raising outcome uncertainty for smaller Olympic teams.

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Fernando Delbianco, Federico Fioravanti, Fernando Tohmé. 2026-08-17. The Best Are Always the Best: COVID-19 Lockdown Stringency and the Dispersion of Olympic Medal Outcomes. https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.16325

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