Impacts of Nuclear War on Human Health from Changed Surface Ultraviolet Radiation

Abstract

Climate model simulations indicate that surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation would change after soot injection into the stratosphere during a nuclear war, due to the competing effects of ozone depletion and aerosol attenuation. Using climate model simulations, we evaluate UV impacts under two scenarios: a regional India-Pakistan conflict producing 5 Tg of soot and a global U.S.-Russia war producing 150 Tg. UV enhancements due to ozone depletion substantially shorten safe outdoor exposure time, particularly for individuals with lighter skin types. Applying UV dose-response relationships to the year 2000 population data, without accounting for direct conflict mortality or famine-related population loss, the 5 Tg scenarios result in approximately 5,300-9,800 additional skin cancer deaths within 10-15 years and up to 75,000 cumulative excess deaths over the following century. In contrast, strong aerosol attenuation under the 150 Tg scenario initially suppresses surface UV, resulting in about 8,500 fewer skin cancer deaths within 15 years and a maximum cumulative reduction of approximately 17,000 deaths over the following century. These findings demonstrate that nuclear war-induced changes in surface UV radiation represent a persistent but previously understudied health impact of nuclear war. While skin cancer would not dominate overall mortality following a nuclear war, enhanced cumulative surface UV radiation represents an additional, long-lasting threat to human health that compounds other global impacts such as climate disruption and food insecurity. The excess UV may also pose negative impacts on animals and plants, including those used for agriculture, which remain to be quantified.