Comparison of several model averaging methods in nuclear charge radius predictions

Abstract

The performance of five model averaging methods, including the arithmetic mean (AM), weighted mean (WM), naive Bayesian model averaging (NBMA), principal component analysis (PCA), and power-moderated mean (PMM) methods, in nuclear charge radius predictions is investigated. Five commonly used nuclear charge radius models are adopted as inputs for the averaging procedures. The charge radius differences between the experimental data and the original nuclear models are analyzed and the results after considering the model averaging methods are also discussed. The calculations show that the NBMA method can provide the best root-mean-square (rms) deviation among these five model averaging methods. The PCA method can extract useful physical information and not only helps to interpret the model differences but also offers a feasible way to construct improved empirical models by recombining the principal components. In contrast to the other methods, whose results worsen upon including a new model with a larger rms deviation, the rms deviation of the PCA method remains almost unaffected. The PMM method is capable of integrating the strengths of various nuclear models and delivering reasonable uncertainty estimates not only in known regions but also in unknown ones. This method can automatically adjust data uncertainties to achieve consistency, and it can provide a tool for a smooth transition of the nuclear charge radius prediction from the WM to the AM. The extrapolation ability of these model averaging methods is checked by 66 newly observed data after year 2021. The calculations show that model averaging offers a reliable strategy for nuclear charge radius predictions, combining high accuracy on known data with robust extrapolation to new measurements. The charge radii and the odd-even staggering in calcium isotopes are also discussed.