Time Series Forecasting based on Solana Digital Asset Dataset

Yufeng Xiao; Minxing Wang; Pavel Braslavski; Dmitry I. Ignatov

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arXiv · 2608.19521

Time Series Forecasting based on Solana Digital Asset Dataset

Yufeng Xiao·Minxing Wang·Pavel Braslavski·Dmitry I. Ignatov

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Abstract

Accurate analysis and forecasting of Solana digital assets require data that captures both token-level behavior and ecosystem-level DEX activity. This paper introduces, to the best of our knowledge, the first Solana digital asset time series dataset designed for forecasting and market-structure analysis. The dataset contains 1,584 tokens observed at daily resolution from March 24, 2024 to March 16, 2025, with 27 variables combining token transactions, prices, liquidity-pool balances, trader activity, Solana DEX volume, DEX trader counts, newly created pairs, and SOL price indicators. Rather than treating the dataset only as input for model comparison, we use it to characterize the DEX-driven token market during a period of rapid ecosystem growth. The analysis identifies synchronized market-wide activity peaks in mid-November 2024 and mid-January 2025 across DEX volume, token trading volume, active wallets, buyers, sellers, new traders, liquidity-pool balances, and SOL price. The January 2025 peak coincides with the 'Trump' token event and is accompanied by a visible transition from liquidity accumulation to withdrawals, suggesting that individual token dynamics are strongly coupled to broader Solana market sentiment and DEX activity. Forecasting experiments are then used as an empirical validation of the dataset's signal content. In three-day-ahead market-capitalization prediction, PatchTST achieves the best overall rank, fine-tuned Chronos follows closely, and statistical baselines remain competitive for trend-dominated tokens. Feature-importance analysis further shows that SOL price, SOL moving averages, total DEX volume, DEX trader counts, and newly created pairs are among the most informative covariates. The main contribution is therefore a curated Solana forecasting dataset and a data-driven analysis of the ecosystem-level factors that shape token volatility.

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BibTeX RIS

Yufeng Xiao, Minxing Wang, Pavel Braslavski, Dmitry I. Ignatov. 2026-08-20. Time Series Forecasting based on Solana Digital Asset Dataset. https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.19521

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