Know What You Don't Flow

Abstract

Calibrated learned uncertainties are a key requirement also for generative neural networks in LHC physics. For a toy model with an explicit likelihood we show how a heteroscedastic and a Bayesian normalizing flow learn the systematic and statistical uncertainties on the underlying phase space density. Without an explicit likelihood we train the heteroscedastic loss on a classifier-reweighted approximate generative network. We illustrate our comprehensive approach for top pair events and show how a conditional heteroscedastic flow propagates calibrated uncertainties to all phase space directions.