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arXiv · 2608.23643

FLARE: A Systematic, Uncertainty-Aware Framework for Evidence-Based Adoption of Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare

Jacob Idoko·Siddhartha Paudel·Mariana Bento·Roberto Souza·Gouri Ginde
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Abstract

Artificial intelligence is increasingly being introduced into healthcare workflows, yet most evaluations emphasize model accuracy rather than whether adoption is economically worthwhile in real clinical settings. This study proposes FLARE, a systematic and uncertainty-aware framework for evaluating the financial and operational implications of adopting AI in healthcare. FLARE combines fuzzy logic, time-driven activity-based costing, and return on investment analysis to estimate the cost of clinical service delivery, the cost of AI development and operation, and the economic consequences of workflow integration under uncertainty. The framework was demonstrated through an early health technology assessment case study of AI-assisted large vessel occlusion detection in the CT stroke pathway for acute ischemic stroke. The case study shows how FLARE can quantify conventional pathway cost, AI-related development and recurring costs, and AI-enabled service savings within a unified activity-based model. Under expected assumptions, the analysis identified a break-even threshold of approximately 3,992 patients per year, with positive first-year return on investment at typical annual stroke volumes of about 5,000 patients. The results further show that economic benefit depends not only on algorithmic performance, but also on patient volume, verification time, infrastructure choices, and workflow design. FLARE provides a transparent and practical decision-support framework for early-stage evaluation of AI adoption in healthcare. By making uncertainty, resource use, and implementation trade-offs explicit, it helps clinicians, administrators, and policymakers determine when AI deployment is economically viable and where operational changes may improve value.

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Jacob Idoko, Siddhartha Paudel, Mariana Bento, Roberto Souza, Gouri Ginde. 2026-08-24. FLARE: A Systematic, Uncertainty-Aware Framework for Evidence-Based Adoption of Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare. https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.23643

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