Do LLMs Understand Limit Order Book Dynamics?

Junxiao Chen; Paul Glasserman

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arXiv · 2608.23706

Do LLMs Understand Limit Order Book Dynamics?

Junxiao Chen·Paul Glasserman

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Abstract

A large language model (LLM) trained on synthetic limit order book (LOB) data achieves near perfect scores in generating valid sequences of LOB events. However, the LLM's implicit world model fails to learn the state of the LOB. This deficiency leads to biased estimates and spurious predictability in using the LLM to forecast future LOB events. Our analysis uses novel tests of an LLM's world model, extending prior work from deterministic settings to the stochastic dynamics needed for the LOB.

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Junxiao Chen, Paul Glasserman. 2026-08-24. Do LLMs Understand Limit Order Book Dynamics?. https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.23706

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