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arXiv · 2608.24483

Evolutionary Period-Change Modeling of Delta Cephei with MESA Tracks

Zuhoor Elahi·Christopher Sirola·Wafa Gull
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Abstract

Cepheid period changes provide a direct evolutionary diagnostic because the pulsation period responds to changes in stellar radius as a star crosses the instability strip. We present a controlled MESA evolutionary-track analysis for Delta Cephei using nonrotating, no-wind models. The period is estimated from the period-mean-density relation, P = Q [(R/Rsun)^3/(M/Msun)]^(1/2), with Q = 0.033 d. The adopted comparison values are P = 5.366531 d and dP/dt = -0.1006 s yr^-1. A solar-metallicity mass and overshoot grid identifies clean blueward solutions with negative dP/dt near the observed period, but the best such case has dP/dt = -0.6813 s yr^-1, a factor of 6.77 too large in magnitude. A metallicity pilot grid improves the result substantially, with a best clean-blueward model at M = 5.90 Msun, Z = 0.012, and fov,core = 0.010, giving P = 5.370677 d and dP/dt = -0.2460 s yr^-1. A local refinement around this solution does not improve beyond the same model. Thus, metallicity refinement reduces the period-change mismatch by a factor of about 2.77 relative to the solar-metallicity baseline, but the final nonrotating, no-wind, fixed-Q model still overpredicts the observed magnitude of dP/dt by a factor of about 2.45. The result supports a blueward evolutionary interpretation while identifying rotation, mass loss, binary-related effects, and structure-dependent pulsation periods as the natural scope of a follow-up study.

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Zuhoor Elahi, Christopher Sirola, Wafa Gull. 2026-07-22. Evolutionary Period-Change Modeling of Delta Cephei with MESA Tracks. https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.24483

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